Predicted harsh winter may be a revenue buster for Grand Rapids

After this opening week of ArtPrize with the city of Grand Rapids filled with warmth, sunshine, and tourists spending money, imagining winter is a bit of a cold, wet blanket, but the predictions of another harsh winter for the Midwest have business owners wondering how another bitter season of snow could affect their bottom lines.

Last winter multiple cycles of polar vortex put a strain on natural gas companies, and many were unable to provide needed fuel because of bottlenecks in the system. The resultant increased demand pushed fuel prices far higher than usual, which cut into many companies’ profits. Multiple EPA-driven closures of coal-fired power plants will only drive prices higher and restrict the supply of energy. A lack of heating fuel could be ruinous for companies that stock groceries, high tech equipment or anything else that must be stored at a constant temperature.

Another commodity in short supply is road salt. Because so much was used last winter, there is less available now and prices will be higher. Most directly affected will be municipalities and commercial snow plow operators. They will have to juggle their budgets to come up with the money for salt. Last year many plowing companies operated at a loss because of all the extra manpower they were contractually obligated to provide. Their rates this year will factor in the potential for harsher weather and will likely be higher - which may mean less blacktop will be cleared. If roads, parking lots, and driveways go unplowed and unsalted, fewer customers will venture out to shop.

Of course a hard winter is boon for some industries. Plenty of snow is a boon for ski slopes and tourist attractions catering to snowmobile enthusiasts, and the cumulative effect of worsening roads gives auto repair shops more work. A survey of businesses in the Grand Rapids area done by the Seidman College of Business at GVSU found that, despite the rigor of last winter, most companies did not report large losses and overall economic growth did not stop in 2014, although it slowed.

West Michigan has weathered any number of cycles, weather and economic, and is still standing strong, but it relies upon the supply of energy at reasonable rates to continue to grow. It remains to be seen if the combination of increased EPA regulation and harsh winter weather will have a strong negative effect on companies in the first quarter of 2015.

Tornado touches down in Kentwood

We've had a spate of serious weather in the last year or so for the normally more temperate West Michigan. First we had the Great Flood of 2013 and then a bitterly cold and snowy winter, and now the summer of 2014 is turning out to be wet and stormy - with an actual tornado touchdown in Kentwood! Some of the neighborhoods the tornado passed through were previously drowned out in the flood, so it's a second round for those people. A friend's house was struck by lightning in the storm Sunday night - thankfully, it didn't burn down.

It's feeling a little apocalyptic in Grand Rapids these days. Maybe the next time the sky darkens we should grab Grandmother's jewelry, the flash drive full of photos, and get the heck out of Dodge. 

Fortunately, no one was killed, but it will be awhile before all of the property damage is repaired. In addition to the tornado damage, parts of West Michigan have gotten 10 inches of rain this past month which means some fields - and basements - have flooded. Everything not washed away is nice and green, though, which is a change from two years ago when we were in the middle of a drought.

In fact, the water levels of the Great Lakes have done a sudden turnaround, rising from well below normal to average levels for the first time in a decade. This time last year there was a whole chorus of doomsayers, from environmentalists to economists to tourist industry businessmen worried that the end was nigh. And now who knows what the future will bring? For now, though, you can easily get your boat in and out of most of Michigan's more than 10,000 lakes, and there's plenty of water for the fish to swim around in.

Tornadoes are truly frightening, though, and our thoughts and prayers go out to all those who suffered loss this weekend.

Beginning to evaluate fruit damage from The Winter of 2014

Now that the snow is gone and we appear to have dodged spring flooding, for the most part, we will start to see what kind of damage the three rounds of polar vortex did to our trees and landscaping.

Earlier this month Michigan State University wrote a summary of their evaluation of blueberry crop damage due to road salting and extreme low temperatures. Blueberry bushes exposed to salt because of their close proximity to highways  (up to 100% in some places) had a higher dieback rate than blueberry bushes exposed just to cold, but both suffered substantial damage: "in areas where minimum temperatures dropped below 0 F for several days, we may expect to observe winter damage to blueberries in the range of 20 to 61 percent."

Apples and pears can take colder temperatures, but stone fruits like peaches and cherries are more vulnerable. Grape vines for table grapes and Michigan's growing wine industry were affected as well, although a decent grape crop is still a possibility even with significant bud loss.

Besides damage from the weight of snow and ice, trees and bushes also suffered predation from hungry animals who could not find other food in the harsh winter. Deer, rabbits, and mice nibbled at winter wheat and tree bark, inflicting an unusually high amount of damage on fruit trees.

It's also obvious that everything is going to be later than normal. It's the end of April, and tulips and daffodils are out. In many ways the long, slow warm up was the best possible outcome, both for avoiding flooding and for fruit outcomes, but it means later crops and smaller planting windows for early spring crops like sugar beets. The fields have taken a long time to drain as well, with so much snow melt. Fortunately, April was  not an overly wet month - a blessing.

Michigan is fortunate to have such a diversity of crops grown - all of our tables are improved by the abundance and variety of Michigan agriculture. But spring is a anxious time for farmers in many crop industries, particularly after the abnormal winter we just experienced. It seems likely that we as consumers won't see the vacuum of fruit as in 2012, but say a prayer or keep your fingers crossed for the farmers anyway. They need good crop years to reinvest in our foodshed and themselves.

The snow has melted, now what?

Fortunately for Grand Rapids, after a relentless winter, we had a cool and dry March - which gave the 5 inches of water we'd built up in snow form a chance to melt and run off slowly. So far, despite a bit of ice dam panic, we haven't had too much flooding.

In the last week we've had warmer days, and most of the snow is now gone. Over the next few days, we could see some very wintry precipitation, including snow, ice, freezing rain, and rain, and next week looks likely for some wetter weather. Which means we could see the Grand River rising again, something no one wants after last year's destruction - which cost $13.1 million in Kent County alone.

The City of Grand Rapids has been negotiating with FEMA over the height of its floodwalls and attempting to woo Walker into sharing the cost of extending them along the river's northwest side.  Engineers have analyzed the weaknesses in the current floodwall system. A 100-year flood event - or a flood that has a 1% risk of happening in any year - would result in significant city flooding. In the interim, although city manager Greg Sundstrom does not believe we are looking at even lesser category flooding like last year's, the city has purchased 50,000 sandbags just in case so that, if necessary, the levees near Turner Ave. could be sandbagged and flooding in the city, like it saw in 1904, would be avoided. The wastewater treatment facility, which was sandbagged last year, is also a concern.

Sandbags are certainly good to have around in the short term, but it would be nice to feel confident that the city is on top of this issue. Because April is traditionally quite a rainy month, and our ground is still pretty saturated. It wouldn't take that much more rainfall to cause problems - now or some other spring.

Thundersnow? C'mon!

Mark Torregrossa, the meteorologist over at Mlive, has updated his predictions for what we can expect from today's "thundersnow." Previous reports said we could expect rain, sleet, snow, ice, and "everything but the kitchen sink."  A real extravaganza.

I'm sending up the white flag. My snowblower's broken, my roof rake is broken, and my last snow shovel has a huge crack in it. I finally borrowed one from my sister because Meijer had no more in stock. The ice dams on my house are unreal as none of the snow from December (before I was raking) has melted until now. Tuesday night, my dining room ceiling sprung a leak. I climbed up on a ladder to chip away at the ice on that part of the roof, and managed to stop the leak, although I suspect the higher temperature had more to do with it than my hammer and chisel, melting the ice that had crept up under the shingles so the water could make its way down the roof instead of inside it.

My driveway is a wreck. This would have been the year to hire a snow removal service, but since our family is down one income, we didn't. Our truck can make it up the steep slope, but my car can't, so it's parked in the garage. The snow piles on either side of my driveway are taller than I am, so it's hard to throw any new accumulation up over what is already there. Some of my neighbors have been very good about clearing their sidewalks after the storms and blizzards, but many sidewalks around here remain unshoveled and treacherous. The City of Grand Rapids has again warned that those homeowners will be fined if the city has to do the work for them, but I haven't seen anyone from the city out on the northeast side yet.  Of course, I've been pretty housebound.  

My son has missed so much school that the school closings page is permanently open in my browser. School districts are cancelling winter break and scheduling make up days into the June calendar.  I. Give. Up. White flag! Please, winter - go away. But gradually, now, so we don't have flooding.

At least the house is still standing (knock wood). Around West Michigan roofs, car ports and garages, overhangs, and entire houses have collapsed under the weight of snow and ice. The only thing good about today's snow spectacle is that the rain might remove some of the snow from the roofs around here and clear some of the streets. When it freezes again, as it's supposed to, it will be hazardous driving and walking for awhile, though.

Anyone else have winter kvetching they would like to do? This is for posterity, remember. Your future grandchildren want to know about the winter of 2013-14 - the Big One.

Thankful for

We Grand Rapidians have many things to be thankful for in regards to our hometown.  Here are a few that come to mind:

Unlike so many Midwest cities, Grand Rapids is not dying, but blooming.  The downtown looks better than it ever has and there are so many more things to see and do in Kent County.

A lower unemployment rate than the rest of Michigan , and, at 6.4%, lower than last year.  Full-time, well paid positions with benefits are still pretty scarce, but jobs are out there, at least.

Many of those jobs come from our agricultural sector, which has grown 8% since the start of the Great Recession.  Michigan is second only to California in the diversity of crops grown here.  We owe much of that to our location and the abundance of water in the state.  The Great Lakes also provide a buffer from the harsher weather other northern states experience.  Michigan's more temperate climate allows for cultivation of many fruit trees and bushes that produce an abundance of table wealth for us to enjoy and profit from.  Good, rich soil also helps.

All of that abundance is made available in the state's 200 or so farmers markets.  Pure Michigan brings up 41 farmers markets just within 20 miles of Grand Rapids.  That's a lot of fresh, often organically grown or sustainably raised food to sample.  And our growing food scene reflects it!  Cooking a diverse range of great, healthy food made with healthy ingredients has never been easier.  No food deserts here.

We are sheltered from much of Nature's fury by our location as well.  Last week, the Midwest and particularly Illinois experienced devastating tornadoes which resulted in 8 deaths, huge amounts of property and environmental damage.  People in Peoria will be clearing rubble and trimming damaged trees for a long time to come.  While we occasionally see tornadoes in West Michigan, we are spared most of them and the most ferocious of them.  We also don't have earthquakes, hurricanes, cyclones, tsunamis, long term drought, or out of control wildfires.  We don't even have to deal with poisonous snakes or insects.  If you can handle a long, gray winter, that's about the extent of our weather horrors.  We can be grateful for that.

Finally, Grand Rapids has a history of philanthropy and volunteerism.  Grand Rapids residents volunteer at a rate of 37.6%, significantly over the national average, and the city is Michigan's most generous.  We all benefit from the giving nature of Grand Rapids's citizens, in large and small ways.

Not everyone loves Grand Rapids, but many of us are thankful to live here.  Happy Thanksgiving to all of our readers!

Winter hits Grand Rapids a little early

You just never know what you're going to get with weather in Michigan.  Last year winter didn't hit until halfway through January, and this year we have snow on the ground - with actual school delays and closings -  before Thanksgiving.  It's been a number of years since that last time that happened.  The city hadn't yet swept the gutters of leaves, many of them only fallen in the last week, so now there are frozen clumps of them at the ends of driveways, pushed up by the plow.  Be careful backing out!  Here's hoping we get a spate of warmer temperatures so that last clean up can get done before snow is here to stay.

The Farmer's Almanac is predicting a "biting cold & snowy" winter for the Great Lakes.  Bill Steffen also thinks we're in for some real winter weather, and early.  None of that is written in stone, of course, but if you haven't hired your snow removal contractor or checked your snow blower to make sure it still runs and you have both gas and oil for it, now is the time.  Small engine repair shops in Grand Rapids usually have a couple of weeks' wait time for service, so procrastinating until that first big blizzard and then pulling the cord and praying - it's not such a great plan.  It's also worth picking up a sack of salt or kitty litter to cover those icy spots on your driveway and sidewalks.  Round up the snow shovels, too, and put them where they are close to hand, and make sure your car is ready to drive in snow.

Walking on icy sidewalks can be a challenge.  Owners on the northeast side of the city, at least, are pretty good at shoveling, particularly early on in the winter.  But after that first major storm, the number of icy encrusted sidewalks build.  That's when you want to start wearing Yaktrax, or at least boots with thicker tread, and stepping carefully, choosing grass or snow over icy surfaces.

If you're new to the area, the bad news is Grand Rapids is cloudy in winter.  We do not get the bitter cold temperatures that sweep over the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, but the trade off is overcast days and lake effect snow.  If you have Seasonal Affective Disorder or get the "winter blues," investing in a sun light might not be a bad idea.  Also, even though you might want to stay inside and burrow under your covers, exercise is great for shaking off a gloomy mood.

Fortunately, there are a lot of fun things to do in Grand Rapids in the winter.  There's local skiing and snowboarding, ice skating in or outdoors, and plenty of sledding hills.  Horse drawn carriages tour the downtown.  The Civic Theater does a family production every year at this time.  This year is The Sound of Music.  Then there are the holiday traditions: the Grand Rapids Symphony is doing Holiday Pops, the Grand Rapids Ballet will perform The Nutcracker, and the Calvin Oratorio Society will perform Handel's Messiah.  Before and after the holidays, there are a number of cultural opportunities for music, drama, and art enthusiasts.

In short, winter is coming: prepare, but do not despair!